Approximately every 75 years, Kathmandu has been hit by an earthquake of magnitude 8.0. A strong earthquake is due to strike Nepal anytime. Kathmandu hasn’t witnessed a major earthquake in the last 78 years. Although the quake of 1988 (M 6.6 Richter) and the one that occurred on Sunday (M 6.8 Richter) threatened and claimed human lives and property, that wasn’t as threatening as the 1934 earthquake (M 8.4 Richter). The larger the time gap between quakes, the larger the next one is expected to be.
Nepal is positioned along the southern slopes of the Himalaya between two large and densely populated countries, India and China. Various factors like a rugged and fragile geophysical structure, high angle of slopes, complex geology, variable climatic circumstances, energetic tectonic processes, unplanned settlements, dense and escalating population, deprived economic conditions and a low literacy rate have made Nepal vulnerable to natural disasters. Most parts of the country are seismically active.
Among all the disaster scenarios in Nepal, none is as alarming as the prospect of a major earthquake striking the Kathmandu Valley. Kathmandu is among the 21 cities in the world that lie in seismic zones. Various studies have shown that a major earthquake similar to the one in 1934 would destroy 60 to 70 percent of the buildings and infrastructure in the valley, leading to tens of thousands of fatalities and hundreds of thousands of injured. Therefore, there is an urgent need for disaster preparedness.
School children are especially vulnerable to earthquake hazards in the Kathmandu Valley. Studies have revealed that less than 10 percent of the schools in Kathmandu are earthquake resistant. According to the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET), a local NGO involved in earthquake awareness and preparedness, most of the nearly 2,000 schools in Kathmandu are vulnerable to earthquakes. The high vulnerability of schools was revealed during the 1988
earthquake in Udayapur in eastern Nepal when 6,000 schools were destroyed, which luckily occurred during non-school hours. The enormous damage disrupted school attendance for some 300,000 children for several months.
Studies reveal that an earthquake of intensity IX on the MM scale has been experienced in the valley once every 50 to 100 years over the past 900 years, the most recent one being in 1934. Such a tremor during school hours may perhaps kill more than 29,000 students and teachers (12 percent of the total public school occupants) and injure 43,000 (18 percent of the total public school occupants).
Direct losses in terms of damaged buildings would be more than US$ 7 million (based on 2000 prices).
Regarding the impact of an earthquake on schools in the Kathmandu Valley, two scenarios are to be considered — no intervention and intervention. In the no-intervention scenario, the expected loss is more than 29,000 school children dead or injured, and more than 77 percent of the buildings destroyed. In the intervening scenario, 24,000 lives can be saved and the buildings protected.
Earthquake preparedness is poor in Kathmandu, and the lives of thousands of residents are at risk. The government’s capacity and investment in disaster management remains low, constrained by bureaucracy and political stasis. A number of reports have disclosed that inadequate preparedness will possibly result in nearly 40,000 people getting killed in the capital, more than 900,000 left homeless and 60 percent of the infrastructure destroyed. An NSET survey of the almost 400 government schools in the Kathmandu Valley conducted 12 years ago illustrated that a 1934 type earthquake would kill nearly 30,000 students and teachers outright and injure another 43,000.
Despite the recognised importance of earthquake awareness, programmes to educate school children about earthquakes are not proper or sufficient. Earthquake Risk Reduction is not included in the formal education curricula at any level from class one to university. The existing lessons on natural disasters in the textbooks of science, environment and other subjects educate students about the physics of the hazards, but they do not teach how to reduce disasters and how to make one safe from hazards. That is to say, the current school disaster education based on lectures can raise the risk perception, but cannot enable students to know the importance of pre-disaster measures and to take actual action for disaster reduction.
Regardless of the knowledge of historical seismicity, and continued geological research, public awareness of earthquake hazards and risk is still minimal, and implementation of earthquake risk management efforts is almost non-existent. Lack of appropriate awareness on disaster preparedness can put children at high risk during an earthquake. In a country which is very prone to earthquakes like Nepal, the involvement of schools through disaster education and school safety programmes is urgent. The concept of school safety, however, is not limited to preventing the collapse of school buildings, but rather extending awareness on disaster preparedness for the safety of students and teachers. Knowledge of appropriate behaviour during an earthquake is crucial for prevention of injury and loss of life and protection of public health.
Posted on Kathmandu Post (Sep/19/2011)
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